Articles
6 pieces of analysis, newest first.
The Horse Racing Money Problem: Who Gets Paid?
Australian racing paid out $996 million last season. 1,677 horses collected half of it. Here's the full distribution.
48 Groups, 104 Games, One Spreadsheet: Grading a World Cup Prediction Model
The model called 35 of 48 group positions and all four semi-finalists. It also picked the wrong winner. Here's the full scorecard.
How We Score Every Suburb in Australia (and Why Most Rankings Get It Wrong)
14,643 suburbs scored on ten dimensions. No listicles, no vibes, no real estate advertising — just data, weighted transparently.
What 1,054 NRL Matches Taught a Machine About Winning
A twenty-season statistical model picks NRL winners at 68 per cent. The secret isn't the forwards pack — it's the spine.
Super Bowl LX: Seahawks vs Patriots EPA Model Breakdown
An EPA model built on 48,578 plays found two points of value on the Patriots spread and a classic under spot. Here's the full breakdown.
Two From Three at the Top: Scoring a Melbourne Cup Ratings Model
The model's top three picks included the winner and the third placegetter. Its number one pick ran dead last. That's racing.